Lumber producers and distributors are heading into 2026 with real headwinds — tariffs, a shaky economy, and rising costs are squeezing margins and slowing construction demand. Throw in workforce shortages, weather disruptions, and a regulatory environment that rarely does you any favors, and it’s a lot to manage at once.
According to HUB’s 2026 Agribusiness Outlook the businesses that will come out ahead aren’t the ones that ignore these challenges — they’re the ones that get in front of them.
1. Know Where You’re Exposed on Supply
Over-reliance on any single supplier or import source is a liability right now. Take a hard look at where you’re exposed, build relationships with domestic suppliers wherever possible, and line up backup options before you need them. American-sourced materials aren’t just good for your bottom line — they’re good for your supply chain’s long-term stability.
A solid business continuity plan needs to account for disruptions on both ends — your suppliers and your customers.
2. Treat Your Workforce Like the Business Risk It Is
The manufacturing sector could be short nearly 2 million workers by 2033. That’s not a distant problem. Smart lumber operations are already pairing skilled tradespeople with targeted automation — not to replace workers, but to stretch their capacity and stay competitive.
Attracting and keeping good people also means offering benefits that actually matter to them: retirement plans, healthcare, and flexibility. In the recent HUB 2025 U.S. Workforce Vitality Gap Index, the numbers show that three out of four workers say personalized benefits make them more likely to stay. That’s a retention tool, not a perk.
3. Don’t Let Renewal Sneak Up on You
Property insurance remains tough, especially for facilities with fire risk or older infrastructure. Liability and auto costs keep climbing. Insurers are looking hard at claims history and how well you manage risk day-to-day.
The businesses that get the best outcomes at renewal are the ones that know their numbers, have addressed recurring issues, and can clearly show what they’re doing to reduce risk. Review your coverage early, be upfront about operational changes, and work with a broker who understands the lumber and building materials space.
4. Plan for the Disruption That’s Coming
Weather events, supply chain breakdowns, labor gaps and economic instability aren’t going away. Your continuity plan needs to be current, tested, and built to handle problems that originate outside your walls. A key supplier going under or a major customer going dark can hit just as hard as anything happening inside your own operation.
The Bottom Line
Tough times reward preparation. Lumber businesses that come through the next few years in good shape will be the ones that took risk seriously before it became a crisis, and had the right advisors in their corner when it mattered.
About the author
Paul Quandt, CIC, CFPS, CLCS, is the senior commercial lines insurance executive with global insurance brokerage HUB International’s Oregon region and northwest leader of their Forest Products Division. With over 100 years’ experience serving the forest products industry, Paul and his team are well versed in the unique environment and needs of our industry. Paul has developed a strong reputation as a high energy and risk-reducing focused specialist. Prior to his transition to the agency side, he oversaw risk services of 7 western states for a national insurance carrier, designing cost-effective risk reduction programs. In 2015 Paul joined HUB International, a top 5 global brokerage. Today, he is primarily focused on companies that carry risk; those that view quality loss control & safety programs as a necessity; whether it is heavy manufacturing, complicated liability, large fleet, high percentage of accounts receivable, or a workers compensation concern.
His background in risk management makes him uniquely qualified to review his clients’ coverage and safety programs, assisting them in not only making sure they are well covered in the event of a loss, but also reducing the likelihood of a loss by putting risk services at the forefront. Paul is proud of his dedication to continuing education, having earned certifications as a CIC, CLCS, and the prestigious CFPS.
Article by Paul Quandt of HUB International.
